Turkey will lead Europe in ecommerce growth through 2029, expanding at an average annual rate of 12.9 percent, according to a ranking by data firm ECDB. Bulgaria comes next at 12.5 percent, while Bosnia and Herzegovina and Malta share third place at 10.0 percent.
The forecasts cover 2025 to 2029 and show Eastern and Southeastern Europe as the main drivers of digital commerce on the continent. ECDB tracks global trends and links the surge to structural changes rather than temporary shifts.
Turkey’s advantage extends beyond growth rates. With 86 million people, online spending reached about 86 billion euros last year, a 16 percent increase. Bulgaria’s market remains small by comparison, with sales of just 1.2 billion euros in 2023, despite the upcoming arrival of Zalando, Europe’s largest online fashion retailer.
Russia ranks fifth with a projected 9.8 percent annual growth. Poland, in eighth place, reflects the more moderate expansion seen in Central Europe.
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The growth is uneven across the region. Some markets are still developing, while others benefit from better infrastructure and expanding marketplaces. Drivers differ by country, but the pattern remains clear: the biggest gains occur where digital commerce has the most potential.
In Turkey, the rise aligns with economic changes. Digital payments and logistics networks have grown quickly, though inflation and currency issues create challenges. Government efforts to reduce cash use appear to be working, at least in spending volumes.
Bulgaria’s high ranking is unexpected. The country has one of Europe’s lowest ecommerce adoption rates, but that may shift soon. Zalando’s entry could speed up change, though local retailers have been slow to adjust. Some experts believe the projections rely on a catch-up effect that may not happen if consumer behavior stays the same.
Malta’s third-place finish stands out. The island, home to 520,000 people, has a large online retail sector for its size. Cross-border shopping and many international businesses help explain this, though the market’s future stability is uncertain.
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Russia’s growth faces challenges. Sanctions and the departure of global platforms have altered the setting, but local companies have taken over. Ozon and Wildberries now lead the market, with the latter reporting a 40 percent revenue jump in 2023. Whether this trend continues amid geopolitical tensions remains unclear.
Ecommerce growth is no longer tied to traditional economic leaders. Germany and the UK, Europe’s biggest online markets, don’t appear in the top 10 for growth. Instead, the focus has moved to countries where digital commerce is still developing—and where small improvements can create large gains.
The next five years will likely focus on solidifying these gains. Infrastructure and consumer trust will determine whether today’s leaders keep their positions. For now, the data points toward Eastern Europe.
Retailers expanding into new markets may find opportunities in Spain and the Netherlands, where similar shifts are underway.